Thursday, June 14, 2012

Past Three Matches, And The Final Two

I am not going to use my health issues to excuse my not doing much writing of late... it is more my worrying about my health that has kept me from doing so. Rest assured that I am well enough, just some issues with hemorrhoids... and we will leave it at that.

During my absence (writing, not watching and following) Newell's Old Boys lost two games in a row to Tigre 3-1 and then to San Lorenzo 3-2, both away games against tough opponents. San Lorenzo, tough? you ask. They may be in the bottom half of the table, they may be in the Relegation Playoff zone, but they are still San Lorenzo.

Last weekend, at home, Newell's beat Independiente 2-1, a win that put La Lepra into third place, only two points off the 33 point pace set by Boca Juniors, and a point from Tigre and Arsenal who are tied for second. With two matches to go even Vélez Sarsfield and All Boys are still in the race, at least mathematically, as they are only three points from the top.

That said, let us look at the teams the contenders will be facing in the final two matches, and my predictions:

Boca Jrs: 33 Points
Home - Arsenal (32) - Boca win
Away - All Boys (30) - Draw

Tigre: 32 Points
Away - Vélez Sarsfield (30) - Vélez win
Home - Independiente (18) - Tigre win

Arsenal: 32 Points
Away - Boca (33) - Boca win
Home - Belgrano (Córdoba) (21) - Arsenal win

Newell's: 31 Points
Away - San Martín (San Juan) (19) - Newell's win
Home - Lanús (24) - Newell's win

Vélez Sarsfield: 30 Points
Home - Tigre (32) - Vélez win
Away - Racing Club (19) - Vélez win

All Boys: 30 Points
Away - Argentinos Jrs (23) - Draw
Home - Boca (33) - Draw

If the combined points of opponents mean anything, Newell's would seem to have an advantage as their opponents have only managed 43 points between them. Boca has it worst off (62), followed by All Boys (56) Arsenal (54), Vélez (51), Tigre (48). If things go according to my predictions Boca end the season with 37 points, as do Newell's. Vélez in second with 36, Tigre and Arsenal with 35, and All Boys finish with 32. This, of course, would result in a playoff for the championship between Boca and Newell's.

Will this happen? Only time will tell.

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